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- THE WEEK, Page 18WORLDTrade War? Or Trade Peace?
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- Any E.C. deal that satisfies the U.S. might mean isolating France
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- The nominal stakes -- soybeans and Pouilly- Fuisse wine --
- hardly seemed worth war. But of course other matters are at
- issue. The future of French politics, for one. Also the balance
- of power within the European Community, and Washington's
- determination to stop playing Uncle Sucker in trade. Oh yes, and
- a grand trade deal that eventually might give a huge lift to the
- world economy.
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- The scrap began when Washington threatened to add a 200%
- tariff (thus tripling prices) on white wine imported from Europe
- -- unless the E.C. agrees by Dec. 5 to extraordinary cuts in
- subsidies that encourage production of oilseeds. In the U.S.
- view, these subsidies unfairly limit export sales of American
- soybeans. But France is trying to stall any such reductions
- until after parliamentary elections in March. President Francois
- Mitterrand's Socialists face defeat as it is, but the anger of
- farmers with reduced incomes might cost them even more votes and
- seats than expected. Reasoning: it's better for a successor
- center-right government to reduce subsidies further and face
- farmer fury.
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- Meanwhile, though, a U.S.-E.C. trade war could kill a deal
- among the 108 members of the General Agreement on Tariffs and
- Trade to lower many barriers to commerce. So while starting to
- list U.S. products for counter-retaliation, the E.C. also moved
- to reopen negotiations with Washington. France's partners
- forced E.C. Commission President Jacques Delors to reinstate Ray
- MacSharry, the Community's principal agricultural negotiator,
- who had resigned after accusing Delors of undermining his
- efforts. British Prime Minister John Major insisted on a deal,
- and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl called the prospect of a trade
- war "politics of idiocy." Mitterrand conceded that the isolation
- of France would be "very dangerous." But France has support from
- Italy, Spain and Belgium. A compromise is foreseeable, but not
- readily.
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